Chapter 14 · 8 of 15
The World
A decade of hugs, a year of tests: tariffs from the friend, a thaw with the rival, a treaty suspended.
The world Continuity, louder
BEFORE AFTER
Before → after
US tariff on Indian goods
Before low single digits circa 2014
After 18% Feb 2026 deal · peaked at 50%
Trade deficit with China
Before $36.2 bn FY14
After $99.2 bn FY25 record
Russian oil share of imports
Before <2% before 2022
After 35–40% peak · now falling
Remittances home
Now $135.46 bn FY25 — world's largest
Indus Waters Treaty
Before 1960 in force through 3 wars
After abeyance since April 2025
Indians evacuated from Ukraine
Before 1.7 lakh Kuwait airlift, 1990
After 22,500 Operation Ganga, 2022
India's trade deficit with China, $ billion India boycotted China politically and bought from it industrially.
US tariff on Indian goods, the tariff year, % 18% beats Pakistan's 19 and Vietnam's 20. The binding text was still unsigned in Aug 2026.
One person, before and after
S
Shameena a Kerala nurse in Kuwait A composite — built from thousands of real accounts. 1 1990 Shameena's aunt airlifted from Kuwait — 1.7 lakh flown out.
2 2022 Her daughter flown home from Kharkiv.
3 Aug 2025 America — India's friend — hits it with 50% tariffs.
4 Sep 2025 Her son's US visa now costs $100,000.
Before 2014 Nehru: non-alignment — join no camp. 1971: tilt to Moscow. 1991: Look East; warmer with the US. 2008: the nuclear deal. 2014: US partner, Russian weapons, wary of China. After 2014
The new style
Vishwaguru India as teacher to the world
Diaspora rallies: MSG, Wembley, Houston. SAARC leaders at the 2014 oath. SAARC hasn't met since 2016.
America: hug, then whiplash
50% → 18% US tariff, 2025 → Feb 2026
Three defence pacts; Quad revived. 2025: 50% tariff, $100k H-1B fee. Trump claimed the ceasefire. India denied.
China: freeze, then thaw
$99.2 bn trade deficit with China, FY25
Galwan 2020: 20 soldiers dead. Apps banned, flights stopped. The deficit doubled during the boycott. Modi in Tianjin, Aug 2025.
Russia
<2% → 35–40% Russian share of oil imports
Refused to choose on Ukraine. Refined Russian crude sold to Europe. US sanctions cut the flow (2025). Putin in Delhi, Dec 2025.
Pakistan & the treaty
1960 → 2025 Indus treaty — now in abeyance
Survived three wars. Suspended after Pahalgam. 'Blood and water cannot flow together.'
The neighbours
$4 bn rescue for Sri Lanka, 2022
Win: Sri Lanka. Wound: Bangladesh — Hasina fled to Delhi. Maldives: 'India Out', then back. Taliban minister in Delhi (2025).
The stage
$135 bn remittances, FY25 — world record
G20 2023: African Union admitted. 6.6 crore vaccine doses shipped. Passport still ~80th. Still fighting about
1
New doctrine, or Nehru louder?
Government's case Multi-alignment: sit at every table. Survived the 2025 tariff storm. VS
Critics' case The same old non-alignment instinct. A decade of hugs bought nothing in 2025.
The book: 2025 fits both readings.
Where do you lean?
Government Both hold Critics
2
Did the American bet pay?
Government's case Pacts and tech ties survived. 18% beats every regional rival. VS
Critics' case 50% tariffs and an H-1B wall. A US President claimed India's ceasefire.
The book: The signed deal's text will settle it.
Where do you lean?
Government Both hold Critics
3
Big in the world, lonely at home?
Government's case Courted by the US, Russia and China at once. G20 consensus in wartime. VS
Critics' case Every neighbour a wound but one. Indus move may be cited back upstream.
The book: Global rise real. Regional loneliness real.
Where do you lean?
Government Both hold Critics
The verdict
The world Continuity, louder Rule 2 Strongest verified FOR Multi-alignment survived the tariff year intact
Strongest verified AGAINST "Howdy" became 50% tariffs; every neighbour a wound but one
Yours
The book gives none. Slide; it is saved to your scoreboard on this device.
Clearly worse Worse No real change Better Clearly better
Read the full chapter — the book’s own words
Every negotiation in this chapter stood on one silent question: what happens if talking fails? Uri, Balakot, Galwan — and the four days in May 2025 when India and Pakistan fought their sharpest battle in a generation, with new weapons and new rules. Chapter 15: The Gun.